MLB 2024: What would happen if pitchers didn’t throw as hard?

Logan Webb is undeniably one of the best starting pitchers in the major leagues, and he’s one of the few you might confidently call an ace. The San Francisco Giants‘ 27-year-old right-hander features a sinking fastball with 30 inches of vertical break plus arm-side horizontal movement, a changeup considered one of the best in the game, and a sweeper he likes to throw when ahead in the count. His command allows him to hit the corners or the bottom of the strike zone with all three pitches.

Rise to Prominence

Since his breakout season in 2021, Webb ranks fourth among all pitchers in WAR and is about to pass the injured Gerrit Cole and Sandy Alcantara to trail only Zack Wheeler. He has been durable, leading all pitchers in 2023 with 216 innings. The movement on his sinker and changeup induces a high rate of grounders, thus limiting home runs better than your typical starter.

The Perfect Modern Pitcher?

In many ways, Webb looks like the perfect prototype for a modern starting pitcher, except for one thing: he doesn’t throw hard, at least by current standards. His sinker has averaged 92 mph this season, well below the MLB average fastball velocity of 93.7 mph.

The Velocity Debate

In a season with many starting pitchers suffering injuries, discussions around keeping pitchers healthier often involve velocity. Would pitchers get hurt less often if they weren’t throwing as hard? In other words, if they were more like Webb?

Evolution of Webb’s Pitching Style

When Webb reached the majors in 2019, he was more of a conventional four-seam fastball pitcher. After Tommy John surgery in 2016, he returned throwing 93 to 96 mph. The Giants wanted him to throw his four-seamer up in the zone, and he threw it 43% of the time during his eight-start call-up. When the Giants hired Brian Bannister as their director of pitching, he convinced Webb to drop his arm angle and throw his sinker more. By 2021, Webb’s sinker and changeup had become a potent pairing.

Injuries and High Velocity

The debate around velocity and injuries continues, especially as many of the hardest throwers have landed on the injured list. For instance, Spencer Strider of the Atlanta Braves, one of the top 10 hardest throwers last season, had surgery to repair his UCL in April. Similarly, Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez, and Shane McClanahan are out for the season. Even Shohei Ohtani won’t pitch after having elbow surgery last year.

The Impact of Velocity on Performance

Pitchers understand the risks and the rewards of high-velocity pitching. Red Sox reliever Liam Hendriks noted, “It’s obviously harder to hit 98 than it is 92,” pointing out that his ERA was significantly lower when he threw harder.

Success Without High Velocity

Despite the emphasis on velocity, several pitchers have found success without it. Webb, Ranger Suarez, Shota Imanaga, and Seth Lugo are examples of pitchers who excel with below-average fastball velocity.

Tanner Houck of the Boston Red Sox, with a sinker averaging 93.3 mph, has discovered that throwing softer helps him hit spots better, produce ground balls earlier, and stay in the zone more, leading to deeper outings in games.

Maximizing Efficiency

For Webb, part of his pitching identity involves maximizing efficiency. Last season, Webb was one of just five pitchers to reach 200 innings while averaging 6.5 innings per start. This efficiency is evident in his ability to strike out batters while maintaining a high rate of ground balls.

The Art of Pitching

While the chase for velocity isn’t going away, Webb and others remind us of the importance of knowing how to pitch. Greg Maddux, a Hall of Fame pitcher, famously said, “Pitching isn’t a speed contest, it’s an execution contest.” Webb exemplifies this philosophy, demonstrating that success in pitching comes from understanding and executing the right strategies for each individual pitcher.

The Future of Pitching

As the game evolves, so too will pitchers. The shift towards fewer fastballs and more sweepers suggests a future where pitchers rely on movement and command rather than sheer velocity. Webb’s success story offers a blueprint for pitchers who can thrive by mastering their craft rather than merely throwing hard.

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